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Original Investigation|Articles in Press

Machine Learning Classifier for Preoperative Prediction of Early Recurrence After Bronchial Arterial Chemoembolization Treatment in Lung Cancer Patients

  • Author Footnotes
    1 Chunli Kong, Linqiang Lai and Xiaofeng Jin contributed equally to this work.
    Chunli Kong
    Footnotes
    1 Chunli Kong, Linqiang Lai and Xiaofeng Jin contributed equally to this work.
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Author Footnotes
    1 Chunli Kong, Linqiang Lai and Xiaofeng Jin contributed equally to this work.
    Linqiang Lai
    Footnotes
    1 Chunli Kong, Linqiang Lai and Xiaofeng Jin contributed equally to this work.
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Author Footnotes
    1 Chunli Kong, Linqiang Lai and Xiaofeng Jin contributed equally to this work.
    Xiaofeng Jin
    Footnotes
    1 Chunli Kong, Linqiang Lai and Xiaofeng Jin contributed equally to this work.
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Weiyue Chen
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Jiayi Ding
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Liyun Zheng
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Dengke Zhang
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Xihui Ying
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Xiaoxiao Chen
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Minjiang Chen
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Jianfei Tu
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Jiansong Ji
    Correspondence
    Address correspondence to: J.J., Department of Radiology, the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China.
    Affiliations
    Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, Institute of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., X.J., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Clinical College of The Affiliated Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., J.D., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)

    Department of Radiology, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui 323000, China (C.K., L.L., W.C., L.Z., D.Z., X.Y., X.C., M.C., J.T., J.J.)
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  • Author Footnotes
    1 Chunli Kong, Linqiang Lai and Xiaofeng Jin contributed equally to this work.

      Highlights

      • Clinical response to BACE in lung cancer varies among patients with similar features.
      • Radiomics signatures exhibited excellent performance in predicting early recurrence.
      • The combined model exhibits high clinical utility.

      Rationale and Objectives

      Bronchial arterial chemoembolization (BACE) was deemed as an effective and safe approach for advanced standard treatment-ineligible/rejected lung cancer patients. However, the therapeutic outcome of BACE varies greatly and there is no reliable prognostic tool in clinical practice. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of radiomics features in predicting tumor recurrence after BACE treatment in lung cancer patients.

      Materials and Methods

      A total of 116 patients with pathologically confirmed lung cancer who received BACE treatment were retrospectively recruited. All patients underwent contrast-enhanced CT within 2 weeks before BACE treatment and were followed up for more than 6 months. We conducted a machine learning-based characterization of each lesion on the preoperative contrast-enhanced CT images. In the training cohort, recurrence-related radiomics features were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Three predictive radiomics signatures were built with linear discriminant analysis (LDA), support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms, respectively. Univariate and multivariate LR analyses were performed to select the independent clinical predictors for recurrence. The radiomics signature with best predictive performance was integrated with the clinical predictors to form a combined model, which was visualized as a nomogram. The performance of the combined model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

      Results

      Nine recurrence-related radiomics features were screened out, and three radiomics signatures (RadscoreLDA, RadscoreSVM and RadscoreLR) were built based on these features. Patients were classified into the low-risk and high-risk groups based on the optimal threshold of three signatures. Progression-free survival (PFS) analysis showed that patients of low-risk group achieved longer PFS than patients of high-risk group (P < 0.05). The combined model including RadscoreLDA and independent clinical predictors (tumor size, carcinoembryonic antigen and pro-gastrin releasing peptide) achieved the best predictive performance for recurrence after BACE treatment. It yields AUCs of 0.865 and 0.867 in the training and validation cohorts, with accuracy (ACC) of 0.804 and 0.750, respectively. Calibration curves indicated that the probability of recurrence predicted by the model fits well with the actual recurrence probability. DCA showed that the radiomics nomogram was clinically useful.

      Conclusion

      The radiomics and clinical predictors-based nomogram can predict tumor recurrence after BACE treatment effectively, which allowing oncologists to identify potential recurrence and enable better patient management and clinical decision-making.

      Abbreviations:

      BACE (bronchial arterial chemoembolization), ER (early recurrence), CT (computed tomography), MRI (magnetic resonance imaging), CTA (CT angiography), DCA (decision curve analysis), PFS (progression-free survival), mRECIST (modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors), LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), LDA (linear discriminant analysis), SVM (support vector machine), LR (logistic regression), ORR (objective response rate), DCR (disease control rate), AUC (area under the curve), ROC (receiver operating characteristic), ECOG (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group), VOI (volume of interest), 95% CI (95% confidence interval), GLSZM (grey-level size zone matrix), GLCM (grey-level co-occurrence matrix), GLRLM (gray-level run length matrix), GLDM (gray-level dependence matrix), NGTDM (neighbouring gray tone difference matrix), TBIL (total bilirubin), CEA (carcinoembryonic antigen), SCC (squamous cell carcinoma antigen), CYFRA21.1 (cytokeratin-19-fragment CYFRA21-1), NSE (neuron-specific enolase), ProGRP (pro-gastrin releasing peptide)

      Key Words

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